Saturday Notes, GP Pick 6, Keeneland and #Chromies

Hello race fans. Again, I digress, I stole that.

Today there's a mandatory pick 6 payout at Gulfstream Park. The math, thanks to Mike, is here, showing just how good payouts like this can be. As the link alludes, there are also positive expected possibles at Prairie Meadows and Turf Paradise.

Full circle? A conversation took place yesterday:

In the early HANA rankings in 2008, and when Keeneland was number one the email inbox filled up with "how can a poly track be number one? It should be downgraded" It's interesting how so many are complaining now how bad the dirt meet was, and that it should be downgraded. It was the goal of the creator, Bill Weaver, that things like track, or food or what have you, was not included, because of subjective asks like this. I think he was right.

I'm amazed at how many tweets and chat board posts I have seen saying "bring back polytrack". Absolutely fascinating, and it proves without a doubt that players will bet anything, on anything, if it provides good value and deep handicapping insight. When you lose that, you lose handle. 

Keeneland did have another tough meet (down about 14%) and the excuses were out in full force. The bottom line is Keeneland is no longer a track that has the characteristics where you can bet ~$10,000 or more a day at. It's more than just field size, it also has to do with spreading. It takes a lot of $10 or $20 per race players to make up for those losses. It's not a dissimilar principle to an Alan Woods and his team at Hong Kong. With a triple trio over two 20 horse fields, he would bet $2 million into them, looking to hit. Make those two ten horse fields and his handle would not go down by 30% or 40%, it would probably go from $2 million to zero on that wager.

Last up, I miss the Chromies. These are hilarious. Enjoy your Saturday everyone.

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