Getting Ready for the Keeneland Meet

There are some places you go in your travels where everything kind of seems just right.

It can be anywhere - sitting on a deck with friends at a cottage, at the ballpark or other sporting event, hiking through a wooded trail. Sometimes it doesn't even have to be a physical place; watching the "catch"scene in Field of Dreams brings me immediately into my backyard as a ten year old with my dad.

When I walked into Keeneland for the first time I felt that way about a racetrack. It was just so welcoming. It's a place with beauty and ambiance. A place where jockey's, trainers and owners are treated well, but fans and bettors are treated just as well. A place where if you want to bet big cash with Maloney upstairs you can, but if you want to dress up in a suit and tie and bet $2 to show, well, you can do that too. A place where you might see a Derby winner run, or you can own a claimer, with a shot to get to the winners circle, in front of fans, friends and family. A place where you can hope to get a decent table with your cohorts to handicap the races and shoot the breeze.

Each year my Thursday evening before Keeneland's meet begins has me working at the real job. That allows me to play the next day's card, from start to finish, without interruption. It rarely works out that way, but that's my plan. Tonight will be no different.

Today Keeneland was again named the number one track for betting value in North America by HANA. That has nothing to do with what I wrote above, of course. HANA's Bill Weaver, who designed the ratings, wanted them based on hard numbers regarding takeout, bettability, field size and all those metrics we worry about as bettors; not about how we feel about something. But it does give me hope that the sport we're all married to in some form can attempt to succeed on all fronts, to all types of participants and customers. When that's achieved, it helps the sport, and everyone's light shines a little brighter. I don't think anyone does it quite as well as Keeneland does.

Enjoy opening day everyone.

Thursday Notes

Good morning racing fans!

I am publishing this post now, but to our millions and millions and millions of readers, please embargo this until noon today.

I enjoyed reading fellow blogger Heidi's post regarding not hearing the racecaller, and having to "listen" to a race in other ways.

• I do not need background narration to guide me through what is happening before my eyes. I see every little detail, I understand every fraction of a second, every move the jockeys make, and every expression the horses give. I see the perfect rhythm of Secretariat’s strides, I see the courage in Rachel Alexandra, I see the powerful surge of muscles in Zenyatta’s hindquarters, I see the flick of Winter Memories’ tail, and I see Royal Delta’s ears pricking as she takes the lead. It all comes together and creates something beautiful for my eyes

The reality of what's happening in Ontario racing is settling in. Flamboro, host of the Confederation Cup, will be racing from October through March, and its signature race is probably kaput. The Confederation Cup was one of my favorite races to watch and attend. Summer heat, heats, a big crowd and a whole pile of racing fans. No more it appears.

Keeneland opens tomorrow with a nice card. The Masters means spring for some in the Northeast. For me, the Keeneland opener is spring. Great fields, solid stakes races, and good betting tilts, where we see just how good of a handicapper and bettor we are. If I lose money at a Keeneland meet, I know I have to brush up on my skills. It's a true test, and an enjoyable one at that.

Keeneland has added Jeremy Plonk and Mike Battaglia to their twitter arsenal for this meet. I was thinking the other day how technology works backwards, in some ways. Typing short messages to each other via twitter or facebook is simply a sped up telegraph. Talking live, on the phone, would seem to be the next logical technological progression, however we've been doing that for decades.

The way horses - harness and thoroughbreds - are brought into major races today has changed dramatically.  One trainer who has not strayed from his horsemen roots is Shug McGauhey, the trainer of Orb. Paul Moran wrote a very nice article at ESPN about it.

We were discussing women bettors recently, looking at some stats and so forth. Melissa Keith wrote an article on it in this month's Horseplayer Edition of Trot about that exact topic.

There are detention, or surveillance barns, for the Wood and the Santa Anita Derby this year. This is probably the wave of the future, in my opinion.

I think Vyjack is going to win - or at the very least race well in - the Wood. I don't look at Santa Anita, but I will be cheering for the Headley horse.

If you can ignore the silly part of this article, there are some pretty interesting numbers regarding this weekend's Grand National in the UK.

• Choosing the horse is one thing, how people bet is another and despite betting on the Grand National being a once a year flutter for many Brits, they still have a good idea of how they will bet and how much they will wager.  Nearly 65% claimed they will bet £5 or less this year, nearly 50% (48.8%) of those questioned said they would bet each way with a further 26% betting to win. Over 46% of workers take part in an office sweepstake with 42% of women joining in.  When it comes to seeking advice on which horse to pick, 21% turn to family and friends with 17.4% referring to tips in the papers.
  

I can't watch the Grand National. It's just not for me. But I am obviously in the minority.

Enjoy your day everyone.

Wednesday Notes; TOC, Baconater, Demo's & Dreaming

Happy Wednesday everyone!

A rather scathing review of Pegram and the TOC's influence on California racing today:

"Baffert and Pegram have been the inspiration of bobblehead dolls for racetrack give-away promotions but it’s the bettors who are shaking their heads at the duo’s defiant denials that TOC policies support rather than deter dwindling handle, field sizes, and interest in racing.

Is the dominance of the TOC, which effectively prevents California racetracks from pricing their own product, combined with Pegram’s influence, good for racing in California? Or is it merely the bottom-line component of his success as a horse owner?"

Is the influence of a handful people good for a sport? Not really I guess. The IHA ensures these boards have to be appeased when any change occurs, so it is what it is. Sadly, many have veto power - not backed with a business case, or in arbitration - they can just say no because they want to say no.

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Baconclassic has been on fire lately on the integrity angle. The Paulick Report did an in-depth story yesterday on Jane Cibelli's troubles at Tampa Bay Downs, delving into who is doing what about it in the Sunshine state.  Second on the chooch was the DRF. As Paulick's success, web traffic and revenues grow, his website gains more influence and he seems bent on being a dogged reporter, and letting everyone know where he stands on some of these prickly issues. I don't know anyone else in racing that would've done the Will Rogers Downs video report.

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I had an excellent chat via email yesterday with a few, digging into the "20% of ADW patrons are female", number. Thorotrends, who is a social scientist, is always into this kind of stuff, and others who know a bit about it from a hard numbers perspective felt compelled to reply.

I was sent some numbers from a smaller ADW who said he doubted the 20% number because "only about 7%" of his customers were female. As well, I heard from an offshore marketer and former acquaintance who said with sports betting they'd "kill for that female demo".

Using some numbers from one of Dan's Thorotrends survey's below, we can see (this is unscientific, but he did get many responses from dedicated female race followers) that female players in racing seem to be more casual than their male counterparts, as witnessed by the first two choices.

When we think about it, this unscientific yet well done survey, does fit with the smaller ADW's numbers versus the large one. Casual players or weekend warriors - male or female - do not, in large part patronize a rebating ADW; they are more enticed to play with a Twinspires (for something like free past performances). If casual to serious players are graphed, it would be a downward sloping curve. Correlated to it, would be ADW type. With the female demo being more heavily weighted, and more likely to patronize larger ADW's rather than smaller ones, it tends to fit.

In the end, that makes me feel comfortable with the 20% number (a case can be made it may even be higher than 20%), at that large ADW. And it also allows me to be comfortable with the much lower number at rebaters, or at offshore websites. That data - and a little bit of common sense - probably indicates Dan and a couple of others in the business were likely correct being skeptical of the 20% number overall, when talking about dedicated online bettors. But if we segment what ADW's cater to whom, it makes perfect sense.

I often poke some fun of large ADW's like Twinspires for "giving away toasters", but it is mostly a prod. They segment their base (and dynamically price) like any good business should: They offer a gateway to play racing, and give as incentives free PP's and other handicapping tools, as well as a damn near perfect video interface. For their larger players, they try and funnel them into their own rebating platform. I don't have a quarrel with this. What I do have a quarrel with, is that giving players - male or female, new or old, casual or weekend warrior - a funnel to lower pricing, will help handles. I think that is where larger ADW's fail.

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Back to racing, I see that Thorograph (h/t to Ed Derosa) has given Dreaming of Julia "the best figure any horse has ever run".

This number, and her performance has stumped me, and many others. It's made looking at the running time for the Florida Derby very impractical and dumbfounding. It's the quintessential "sore thumb". It's almost like she caught a flyer and was running like a scared cat, which can happen from time to time with monster figs. 

Or maybe it isn't. Maybe she did run the best number ever. We'll find out in a month and beyond, but honestly this is one where I will believe it when I see it. How do you feel about it? 

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Sid and Joe, in different places.

We've been having some fun here on the Pocket Blog that Joe Drape and Sid Fernando are secretly two peas in a pod, simpatico, joined at the hip, Gopher and Issac. Our crack staff thinks that some of their twitter dust ups are for show, to keep people off their trail, a smokescreen. We've surmised they meet weekly to discuss horse racing, over drinks in Park Slope; with no evidence. However, maybe there is more to it than just the ruminations of a slightly insane blogger with no journalism background (or skill) whatsoever.

Yesterday on twitter, Joe Drape mentioned he was not cheering for Vyjack. Today on At the Races with Steve Byk, Sid trumpeted his warnings about Vyjack's stamina. Different reasons, yes, but the same horse, near the same day.

Coincidence, maybe. But to both Sid and Joe: Cub reporter is watching. Very closely. 

To listen to Sid's full half hour interview on pedigree the archive should be up soon. To contact Drape, look for him on twitter. He's the dude someone in racing is probably yelling at.



Have an excellent day everyone.