I won't bore you with horse by horse analysis. There's plenty of it on the web, and one thing we know about horseplayers is that they like to pick their own horses, and (hopefully) win with them. It's part of the draw of being a player. I will give a few notes, race by race, if anyone is interested. This should be a good evening of racing, and it is a much better card than last year.
- The weather may be key, and we may want to watch the first couple of races to see how the track is playing. Windy Woodbine can sometimes result in a speed bias and that should be watched for.
- I am fully convinced for elimination evening there was a closers bias. If they went stout fractions, the front end wilted. Some good horses were very tired at the end.
Race 2: L Dees Lioness should be coming from off the pace and be a better price. She was awful last weekend and is a better horse than she shows. I Luv The Nightlife is the best 2YO filly in racing. But can you bet her off a loss at a short price? the elimination winner was awesome last week. She coulda won by a football field.
Race 3: The spectating race of the night. If Commander Crowe is odds you can't help but bet him. He is better now than he was last year.
Race 4: I will be going off the board here. Shelliscape was lame last week, but has the uncanny ability to sound up pretty quickly. She is as fast, or faster than any horse in here when she's sound. The 12-1ML on Big McDeal is enticing as well. People might forget Rockaroundsue was a beast earlier in the year. She woke up huge last time. If the chalks win this race, so be it, but there is too much value to overlook for me.
Race 5: Six weeks ago To Dream On might be even money in futures for this race, but not anymore. There are at least two horses who can beat her easily, the rail horse and Bee A Magician. There are others who can too.
Race 6: Has Check Me Out tailed off, or did she just have a bad day last time?
Race 7: Before last week anyone who knows a lick about handicapping would want to bet against Captaintreacherous in this final. I don't know how you do after last week. That is the best the horse has ever looked in my opinion. His stablemate also raced like his tail was on fire. It's a shame this race is in the pick 4.
Race 8: The most overbet horse on the entire card should be Wheeling and Dealing. Any horse who has not been pushed to the 3/4's faster than 1:26.2 in this type of field can not see a dime from me. Bomb chances include Your So Vain and Caveat Emptor.
Race 9: By far this is the best betting race of the evening. Although we can't count on people overbetting Sweet Lou like they have all year, it should still provide value. Panther Hanover might be an overlay. He beat a bias I think, and was not a sexy second place finisher. Outside, Mel Mara may be overbet, because everyone saw him close. Pick a number, any number, because that's who can win this race. I will probably bet Escape the News.
Race 10: Rebeka Bayama is impossible for me to ignore, even from out there. I don't mind Krispy Apple for a bomb.
Race 11: This is a fantastic race. I usually like staying away from Lexington horses here, so that leaves Intimidate & Knows Nothing. I might do something with them. I don't mind the rail horse as well.
Race 12: The Open. As per usual this year, anyone with a trip can be there. Foiled Again hates the lead, so excuse his last. Foreclosure is the sharpest older horse, perhaps, in racing. At 20-1 ML, that might be a steal.
Enjoy your BC day folks!