Case Reversed on Appeal - Trainer Found Guilty of Fraud for Doping

Last year when we wrote about this case, we were pretty surprised the accused was not found guilty of fraud, e.g. fixing a contest. A case like this set some precedent.

• On Sept. 28, 2010, Riesberry was videotaped by hidden camera injecting something into the neck of a horse at Windsor Raceway. The horse raced about an hour later, placing sixth.
  A few weeks later, on Nov. 7, 2010, Riesberry was arrested as he entered the racetrack. A syringe filled with performance-enhancing drugs – epinephrine and clenbuterol – was found in his truck. Reisberry was charged with fraud, attempted fraud, cheating at play and attempting to cheat at play.

• After a lengthy trial that began in 2012, Riesberry was acquitted last year by Superior Court Justice Steven Rogin. Despite finding that Riesberry was a cheat, Rogin found him not guilty of two counts of fraud, saying the Crown had not proven that the betting public had been deprived of anything.

However, on appeal, the higher court changed that decision:

•  In a decision released this week after a Crown appeal, the Ontario Court of Appeal found Rogin had erred in his decision. The appellate court set aside the acquittals and substituted guilty verdicts. The court has referred the case back to Rogin for sentencing. “The betting public was deprived of information about the race that they were entitled to know; they were deprived of an honest race run in accordance with the rules,” the court of appeal found.
  
  Full story here.

Pocket's Breeders Cup Classic Picks Based Purely on Science

Science is the rage these days; analytics, Cosmos, Bill Nye the Science Guy. They're everywhere. I figured I'd jump on the bandwagon and give a Breeders Cup analysis that is solely based on science. Not conjecture, not on workouts, not on if I spoke with Hank Goldberg. Science. Sure it's link bait, but that's what we do here on the blog when we're not someone really famous like Ray Paulick.

Here we go.

1. Prayer For Relief: When I was in university there was this really smart dude who graduated a few years earlier as a Rhodes Scholar. He was super smart and a nice guy to boot. He parlayed his brains and expensive education into being a ticket scalper. He was at the dorm one day and had to get rid of two Madonna tickets, 11th row. I went and it was a fun show, even though I was not a big Madonna fan. Anyhoo, during the show she played Like a Prayer. That's really the only thing positive I can think of with this horse. He's 0 for 2014. Some people like him, but I think they're Madonna fans who probably have not thought this out.

2. Cigar Street: Joseph Kennedy was getting his shoes shined in September of 1929 - so the story goes. His shoe shine boy started giving him stock tips. He figured it was time to bail, he shorted the markets and was able to buy, I think, the state of Massachusetts. Similarly, the kid who was bagging my groceries the other day told me to bet this horse. I should pitch, but since I have a futures bet on this horse I will keep positive.

3. Imperative: This is a west coast horse, like Best Pal, but slower. Steve Byk, the DRF and anyone east of Wheeling West Virginia will have a conniption fit if he wins. I am pretty sure that the powers that be will never let this happen. Pitch.

4. Moreno: I have not followed his trainers' story, I admit, but reading twitter I think I remember seeing Eric Guillot practices voodoo. That in itself makes this horse tempting. I think his JCGC is better than it looks, too.

5. V.E. Day: I have bet Normandy Invasion a few times and each time he lost, sometimes at low odds. I wasn't living when Man O War raced to bet him, and maybe this has influenced me, but I don't like to (scientifically) bet any horse to do with war.

6. Shared Belief: Jim Rome is worth like eleventry trillion dollars. If this horse wins this, he will be worth eleventry trillion, three million dollars. MSNBC is a subsidiary of Comcast, who owns NBC. It might be far-fetched, but they won't let this horse win. At 8-5 do we really want to take that chance?

7. Bayern: Back in high school there was a track meet held at my school. One kid that was supposed to run in the 400 metre was sick and unable to go. Although I played sports for the school I never liked anything to do with track and had never run anything to do with track in my life. But the coach needed a fill in and asked me. "Just stay in your lane and run", were his instructions. I looked at the circle and it didn't look very long so I figured I could just sprint the whole thing. I'm pretty sure I was leading at the half way point by about ten lengths, but then I had to google milkshake. Lactic acid built up and I began to slow down; a plate of molasses could've beaten me the last 100 yards. I think I ran a 1:07 and came last. I hate track. Anyway, long story short, I think similar will happen to Bayern in the Classic.

8. Zivo: I like this horse. It reminds me of Zito and we know he loves training long distances dirt horses. This is a play for me, based on that science.

9. Toast of New York: The locale in the name might make the DRF guys love him, but this horse is secretly a Euro. They don't win on dirt, even if they're bred for it. Chuckaroo.

10. Footbridge: I've never seen this horse race, and horses I have never seen race are 1 for 30 in previous Breeders Cup Classic's. That science says we should ditch this horse as a selection.

11. Tonalist: In harness racing I hate when a horse races well in a certain style, after being beaten - through no fault of their own - in another style. In Thoroughbred racing this happens almost as often. In the JCGC, one race after being near the lead, jockey Joel Rosario said whoa, and took the horse miles off it. He'll do it again and be too far back. Science will win out.

12. Candy Boy: Science says his trainer is 0 fer in the BC. Science also says he kind of beat a track bias last time. Science also tells me to turn my thermostat down or global warming will kill us all, but hell, it's cold here today. I am really confused on this horse, but I think I will use him somewhere.

13. California Chrome: OK, so let me get this straight. The horse has a great post in post 13, which is never a good post. He needs to be outside horses which from the 13 could mean he's 11 wide. He needs to have his foot issues fixed, he needs to run a race he ran this spring, and if all that goes to form he could win. And I'm supposed to be betting him at 6-1?

14 Majestic Harbor: Never seen this horse race. He's like Footbridge with a worse post.

 AE: If this horse gets in twitter will break and all analysis will be rendered moot. The half will go in 43, the last quarter in a minute and four fifths, Jose Canseco might hurt himself with a 9 millimetre, televisions will be turned off. Everyone will leave before the cross country daily double. The TOC might raise takeout to pay for the carnage. Let's all hope this does not happen.

If you've made it this far you know a couple of things to be true: One, I have thought this through scientifically, and two, when I take a few days off work before a Breeders' Cup I have too much time on my hands.

My selections: Cigar Street-Zivo-Candy Boy-Shared Belief.

Good luck everyone.

Breeders' Cup Handle Should Be Fine

This year has been fairly poor in terms of wagering numbers. Some tracks like Kentucky Downs and Woodbine have been up, others like Churchill Downs have been getting killed, but the downs, so far, have beaten the ups. It's blah out there.

What will happen this weekend at the Breeders' Cup? Will they beat last year's handle?

I have handicapped the races, with more work to do, but I have come to the opinion that handle will be good this season, surpassing last years numbers. The fields are much more interesting, field size is quite good, with a breadth from top to bottom that breeds confidence in having to go deeper. Sure there are potential keys, like for example a Shared Belief or Dank, but those potential keys have some serious holes (Dank's form is terrible and Shared Belief isn't faster on paper than several in the Classic). The fields seem so decent this year that even the scratch of American Pharoah does not change the dynamic much; instead of using he and Daredevil, smaller players will look to Carpe Diem, others will go deeper looking at the excellent Upstart, Calculator or Texas Red, should the pace still be hot.

This year there are contingency's almost at every turn. That makes for a good handle.

My opinion stems from the fact that although racing handle looks dead - and you can say it is - it is not dead because players have left in droves. It's deader because we have not been able to find good bets, and that leads us to do something else. When you give us some decent races to bet, like on a Derby card, the Belmont card etc, we tend to send it in just fine.

Bigger meets have been hurt, some of it self inflicted, like field size issues at Keeneland. The signal fee nonsense and takeout hikes kills the game in a slow burn. But when racing gives us big days with deep fields, they stand out. Folks who have cut their handle return, and handle tends to increase, even in this environment.

Have a good Wednesday everyone.