What I like about handicapping big races is that you can use many means to like a horse. I have not done my capping yet for the big race, but if I didn't have time, it might go something like this. And who knows, maybe I'd do better this way than traditionally getting the job done.
Here we go.
Overanalyze, Palace of the Malice ®, Revolutionary, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Taboo
By my count, Todd Pletcher has entered 52 horses in Triple Crown races and has won two of them. This is only slightly worse than my 'girls asked to the prom who said yes' ratio in high school. I'm no statistical genius, but I think with 98% confidence, 19 times out of 20, that record sucks. Just like we did in the Derby here at the Pocket blog, we pitch them all. We'll let the Toddster beat us.
I can't see this guy winning, deep on the inside. As well, New York is a pretty anti-business state, so a horse named after fracking has less of a shot than me winning Ms. Potato Queen at the Syracuse State Fair. We're pitching him.
This is an improving horse - a horse Pocket and his dog Ted bet in his last race which we were impressed with - but he did hydroplane over the slop. We don't bet double digit length winners over the soup when they come back because they're overbet, usually. We'll pitch him.
This horse's trainer did not show up to the Derby to saddle him. If you go to your son's little league games you notice the dad's always show up when the kid is good. They're cheering, yelling instructions and sometimes they act really annoying. I have to pitch him.
Orb, or bro spelled backwards, had the shine come off the rose in the Preakness. He's the Belmont anti-wise guy horse and public handicappers don't look cool if they like him. He's showing up to the Belmont as a brown horse with goat horns. We like these types on the blog, so we're using him.
KM's barn has been winning with everything and who knows, this one might be there. We have no snarky remarks to pitch him, so we'll use him in the superfectas.
He's the Preakness winner, of course, and he might not be overbet because everyone seems to think it was a fluke. We'll use him again.
Will Take Charge
Now this is an interesting horse.
If you read the twitter timeline after the Derby you learned that he "had some trouble" in the far turn. A day later he "had some serious trouble when Verrazano stopped in front of him". A few hours after that, he was "mugged by Verrazano". Not long after you found out that Verrazano thought he was a mare and decided to mount him at the three quarter pole.
Despite that, he ran kind of rotten in the Preakness.
No one seems to like this horse this weekend because there seem to be no Preakness excuses; a drunk infielder did not throw a corn dog at him a the half that he stopped to eat, he was not frisked for camera lenses longer than 14 inches at the three quarters, Lukas didn't accidentally get him shod with iron shoes stolen from a nearby civil war exhibit, or a hundred other things. This horse is right in PTP's wheelhouse.
Right now the trainer can't win a race with an allowance horse against a fat man in a 'Z93 country rock-rocks' promo at Emerald Downs. We're pitching.
I really like this horse, but I feel he is going to be 112 lengths back at the half. I'm no expert on pace, but I surmise that's a lot of ground to make up. We have to pitch.
Belmont Stakes Final Picks
1st Will Take Charge
2nd Orb (Bro)
I'm not guaranteeing this supefecta comes in cold, but I think it has somewhere around a 60-70% chance.
Enjoy your day everyone!
Note: If you want to read a real Belmont stakes analysis, please check out my pal Derek's at Wireplayers.com.
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