Belmont Stakes Non-Handicapping

What I like about handicapping big races is that you can use many means to like a horse. I have not done my capping yet for the big race, but if I didn't have time, it might go something like this. And who knows, maybe I'd do better this way than traditionally getting the job done.

Here we go.

Overanalyze, Palace of the Malice ®, Revolutionary, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Taboo

By my count, Todd Pletcher has entered 52 horses in Triple Crown races and has won two of them. This is only slightly worse than my 'girls asked to the prom who said yes' ratio in high school.  I'm no statistical genius, but I think with 98% confidence, 19 times out of 20, that record sucks. Just like we did in the Derby here at the Pocket blog, we pitch them all. We'll let the Toddster beat us.

Frac Daddy

I can't see this guy winning, deep on the inside. As well, New York is a pretty anti-business state, so a horse named after fracking has less of a shot than me winning Ms. Potato Queen at the Syracuse State Fair. We're pitching him.

Freedom Child

This is an improving horse - a horse Pocket and his dog Ted bet in his last race which we were impressed with - but he did hydroplane over the slop. We don't bet double digit length winners over the soup when they come back because they're overbet, usually. We'll pitch him.

Giant Finish

This horse's trainer did not show up to the Derby to saddle him. If you go to your son's little league games you notice the dad's always show up when the kid is good. They're cheering, yelling instructions and sometimes they act really annoying. I have to pitch him.

Orb

Orb, or bro spelled backwards, had the shine come off the rose in the Preakness. He's the Belmont anti-wise guy horse and public handicappers don't look cool if they like him. He's showing up to the Belmont as a brown horse with goat horns. We like these types on the blog, so we're using him.

Incognito

KM's barn has been winning with everything and who knows, this one might be there. We have no snarky remarks to pitch him, so we'll use him in the superfectas.

Oxbow

He's the Preakness winner, of course, and he might not be overbet because everyone seems to think it was a fluke. We'll use him again.

Will Take Charge

Now this is an interesting horse.

If you read the twitter timeline after the Derby you learned that he "had some trouble" in the far turn. A day later he "had some serious trouble when Verrazano stopped in front of him". A few hours after that, he was "mugged by Verrazano". Not long after you found out that Verrazano thought he was a mare and decided to mount him at the three quarter pole.

Despite that, he ran kind of rotten in the Preakness.

No one seems to like this horse this weekend because there seem to be no Preakness excuses; a drunk infielder did not throw a corn dog at him a the half that he stopped to eat, he was not frisked for camera lenses longer than 14 inches at the three quarters, Lukas didn't accidentally get him shod with iron shoes stolen from a nearby civil war exhibit, or a hundred other things. This horse is right in PTP's wheelhouse.

Vyjack

Right now the trainer can't win a race with an allowance horse against a fat man in a 'Z93 country rock-rocks' promo at Emerald Downs. We're pitching.

Golden Soul

I really like this horse, but I feel he is going to be 112 lengths back at the half. I'm no expert on pace, but I surmise that's a lot of ground to make up. We have to pitch.

Belmont Stakes Final Picks

1st Will Take Charge
2nd Orb (Bro)
3rd Oxbow
4th Incognito

I'm not guaranteeing this supefecta comes in cold, but I think it has somewhere around a 60-70% chance.

Enjoy your day everyone!

Note: If you want to read a real Belmont stakes analysis, please check out my pal Derek's at Wireplayers.com.



2 comments:

Tinky said...

While his running style is admittedly far from ideal, leave Golden Soul out at you peril.

Best pedigree for 12f.

Best program (good race in the Derby; skipped the Preakness) leading up to the race.

Most pleasing in his gallops (especially Wednesday when he impressed).

His rider did a brilliant Bill Clinton impression when claiming that he has never "hit a woman".

Anonymous said...

Funny stuff; good luck

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