Belmont Odds Lines, Big Days and Quick Quips

Happy Thursday people!

" If you go five deep in all four legs of a 50 cent pick 4, you will on average hit it more than half the time, but you won’t recoup your $312.50 ticket cost because the average payoffs won’t be enough to make you any money"

"Frosted is the only runner with lineage on both the sire and dam side with proven distance ability at the Belmont Stakes distance of a mile and a half"

"Any reporter who knew about the colic and didn’t report it, I’d say dropped the ball and let the game and the players down

"I realize that NYRA is taking some serious flak for capping attendance - they should be squeezing every last dollar out of the event, so people tell me. To them it’s clearly much more than that. They are being driven to create a better customer experience on Belmont Day so fans can come back in non -Triple Crown years."

"Business was good at the drugstore but not that good. Doc needed a supplementary source of income to support these expenditures. Enter Hall-of-Fame trainer "Sunny" Jim Fitzsimmons"

 "The bettor flattened the owner, shoved his tickets in the guy’s mouth and by the time security got there nobody saw NUTTIN..."

Those are some quotes and quips from articles in this month's Horseplayer Monthly, the free emagazine. It can be downloaded here. 

Zayat's lawsuit is thrown out, as per Matt Hegarty.

Western Fair's handle was up over 20% last meet. Well done Greg and crew.

The Belmont "big day" is a little bit of a juxtaposition. The first five races have about $2M in purses, but the fields are short, the chalk formidable. The last seven races are good betting affairs, for the most part. Handle has been up on "big days" which is to be expected. Handle, by culling low handle racetracks, or cutting dates in some areas for larger tracks or days, does tend to work to grow handle, marginally. The key word is marginally.

The Belmont Stakes field was drawn yesterday and everyone knows who's who. Here is my fair odds line for the race.

#Moobie 12-1
Tale of Verve 20-1
Madefromlucky 15-1
Frammento 70-1
American Pharoah 9-5
Frosted 6-1
Keen Ice 25-1
Materiality 5-2

My Belmont line will be off the board line, but it's always off when there is a Triple Crown try. I suspect American Pharoah will be below even on the board, but much closer to 2-1 in serials.

Doing an odds line for the Belmont, I believe, is a good idea. With all the public money it's easier to see what's what, and it helps you design your plays. It's pretty obvious I will be playing Materiality in the win pool. I expect I have Tale of Verve, Madefromlucky and Moobie a little lower than they should be, but that's the 12 furlong at play. Keen Ice is a horse who I don't really like, but he did some good stretch running in the Derby. If something strange happens from a pace perspective, who knows. When I have AP at only around 35%, there's some room to play around.

Have a nice Thursday everyone.


Ron said...

Ptp please book my bet.

Pull the Pocket said...

That would be illegal Ron :)

No fan of Materiality I take it? :)


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