Wednesday Headlines - Ambivalence, Good With the Bad & Short Term Thinking

Today on the twitter, a response to some articles like this from SI's Tim Layden about American Pharoah:
I have been trying to get my head around this Triple Crown try and the seeming lack of true buzz, or pull, from the business. I was slowly moving towards the camp that believes the more Triple Crown tries we have, the more we are desensitized to them. But maybe it's simpler than that. Maybe that does explain it. Regardless, there is a real, palpable difference this year, in my opinion.

If I love animals how can I love horse racing?  An answer might take a philosophy degree, or a trip to Dr. Phil. The chasm between racehorses being pets and livestock is something that is hard to digest for almost anyone in this business.

Beyer takes a look at the lack of stamina in the breed. It appears he is on to something, and it generally has to do with the economics of breeding. Having precocious horses who race at two and make money fast, is good for the farms. Purses can be earned before the sales in large quantity and then spent on other horses. If everyone is waiting on a pedigree horse to season, there's less quick cash to spend back. Breeding, ironically, depends on churn, so they do their best to increase it.

It does interest me that this short-term view probably breeds less sturdy horses, which has allowed for bad headlines, more breakdowns, polytrack, race day medication bans and a want to ban lasix. If the sport bred Zenyatta's instead of 8 furlong specialists would some of the real issues go away? Perhaps.

Lenny Moon has a great betting piece on the Paulick Report today. It's filled with some good gems. The problem with change in racing's betting menu is that, like with breeding, the results will not be felt immediately.

American Pharoah will be even money or less come Saturday, just like every other horse who is going for a Triple Crown. Why? Public money and buzz. I would submit that every modern horse going into the race with a chance at history has been overbet. The Belmont is a strange animal, and needs to be looked at as such. When you do that, the odds on these chalk are probably five or six ticks too low.

"It’s probably better to think of Pharoah as a comet", yep.

Gambling is bad. Very bad. Unless it's a lottery, or government run slot machine, that can use the money for something really good.
NYRA forced you to sign up at NYRA to watch the post draw? Really? I, like most, can wait for the post position tweet storm. Interesting, since this is fresh off the news that Yahoo will be streaming an NFL game to over a billion potential users.

American Pharoah's connections secured a marketing deal with Monster Energy Drink. A racehorse promoting a stimulant, that if he gets tested for, he will lose his purse and his trainer will be suspended. That's like Amgen sponsoring a long distance bike race.

Have a nice Wednesday everyone.

1 comment:

Ron said...

Even money would be a gift, but would make me leery that he's icey. 3/5 is probably fair value against this field. If I don't like anything on the undercard, I'm going to the mall instead and getting some shopping done.


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