There Ain't No "Public" in Harness

We'll often hear, "the public made the 7 horse 2-1", and historically I suppose it's meant something, but today it tends to feel more and more ancient. 

Case in point - the last two evenings at Woodbine Mohawk Park. 

As most know, there are stale dated horses racing because of the COVID mandated break, so "the public" can't bet on any form. As well, harness racing, unlike the Thoroughbred cousins, don't have fancy trainer stats to lean on. To add to the mix of uncertainty, Thursday's card was held in a snowstorm, where chaos often reigns. 

How did "the public" do, with no information, bad weather, no lines, and no stats? 

Favorites won at 61%. The average win price was 2-1. 6-1 was the highest priced winner. 

This is, of course, completely counter intuitive. Tim and Jane and Bill in their basements are not making horses with no lines and no form 1-9 (there were two of them in Ontario since the comeback); they're not shooting fish in a barrel at 61% rates. 

This, I believe, is an excellent exercise for those of us who play the game, and an equally good lesson for those running it. 

For us, the customers, we learn that we have to pivot in our play. 15 years ago we were watching the Big M, we'd see ten races of full fields where 6 of ten horses a race had a shot. We'd get to work on the puzzle, wanting to sniff out longest odds and most overlooked one to hammer. As WEG the last two nights show us, we have to totally rethink that. In today's racing there are one or maybe two horses going a race, and the insiders set those lines for us. Many times, the longest horse we like tends to not be value, but drawing dead. 

For those of you in and running it. Well, shame on you. This sport - the anti-Amazon - has chased so many of the "public" away, you're sitting there playing a game amongst yourselves. 

It will get better as the year goes on, and yes, we'll make a score or two in a competitive race here and there. But in my view it's very important to remember episodes like this. In the harness racing game there is no "public". They've hit the exits for years. The last two nights at Mohawk are just a completely transparent reminder of it. 

Have a nice Saturday everyone. 


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