Derby Day is here. Who is the winner? I wish I knew.
There is virtually no chance that the three chalk will not be Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro. They are 7-2, 5-1 and 6-1 at betfair right now with no one close. There is a 6.4% rake right now in the book, so that should broaden a bit. Colonel John is longer at Ehorse X, and there is a bit of an arb opportunity on him for those who play the exchanges and try to lock in profit.
If all of those three are off the ticket? Wowsa, we are in for some solid exotics.
I have not made a bet yet. Usually I get something down in the future book, but did not this year.
My most likely winner is Big Brown, 20 post and all. He is a talented horse and Dutrow has always had his horses ready for big races. He will be super tomorrow I think.
Ian Meyers of Premier Turf Club has a Private Clocker's Report for the race. Amazingly he does this despite Churchill being offered at his own ADW. The guys that run that joint are fans, plain and simple. Who in the heck else would offer a clocker report for a track they don't even carry?
Big Brown: First the positives. We think the horse is a freak and have for a while (a number of PTC clients got down big on him in the future book before the Florida Derby). He appears fit and full of energy and worked strongly this morning, and Dutrow is even more bullish on him privately than he is publicly if that’s possible. OK, now the negatives. He’s still got quarter cracks on both front hooves that have been patched with acrylic. He appeared to Joe, (not to all in attendance, but at least to Joe) that the track was stinging him a little when he worked. Despite the quarter crack he didn’t work in any special shoes (bars, ¾’s etc) and never showed any unsoundness.
Longshot? How about Z Fortune, Cowboy Cal and the filly.
To be honest it has been a busy week and I have not followed the news, other than listening to Steve Byk's radio show on Sirius. I will probably play an exotic or two. Tis all.
This week the ORC nabbed two trainers for EPO. Evzen Pindur and William Elliott. Woodbine Entertainment then came out and said they will not accept horses that were trained by either trainer. This is nothing new, but is interesting. I have some thoughts on both events. I will get to it this weekend I hope. I wonder what everyone thinks of this news.
Cangamble has some good posts up this week. His Derby thoughts are up and his link to the Bob Evans piece is good.
Enjoy the racing this weekend everyone. I am spending a few days out East. I should be back in the fold Monday or Tuesday.
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