Bill Finley writes about the puzzling Derby picture today. One excerpt caught my eye.
"Figure this brainteaser out, out-handicap your pari-mutuel rivals and you might just be holding a winning superfecta ticket worth $498,234.80. This is the guy who has a firm opinion on someone. He has convinced himself that Decisive Moment is going to run the race of his life. This person is crazy."
Wow, he's talkin' bout me! I am a little nuts.
Recapping the futures and the soap opera this year, Finley has a point. Especially when we look at the major contenders.
Uncle Mo - In the Wood he backed up, ran in and out more than a drunk marathoner, changed leads on the straight, finished in a Beyer that a Scooter Davis off the claim nw of a race since 1999 for 5 claimers could run, has a GI infection, and he won't eat. Hey bettors, climb aboard!
Jaycito - Sore foot, hasn't worked since the last Pointer Sisters hit, might or might not make a race this weekend, and Baffert continues to wear dark glasses (even in rainstorms) so when he speaks, we have no idea if he is playin' with us or not.
The Factor - Sprinter speed, can't appear to rate too easily, flips a palate like Denny's flips pancakes, stopped like he was hit like one of those Hong Kong poison darts last time, and looks like a horse you'd want to wait on for other things as an owner anyway. Let's get him to the Derby and bet!
In addition, we have the usual array of downed horses like the uber-talented Premier Pegasus, To Honor and Serve; and I am probably forgetting about 11 more. To add insult to injury, those who handicap with Beyer's and are married to the little wee numbers in the Racing Form, you're screwed too. The chalk has a top fig this year that reminds one of molasses in a winter month.
If logic prevails we would chuck Jaycito, The Factor and Mo out and begin handicapping. They have so many things stacked against them, and so much talent for a sparkling career, one might surmise there is no way they will start the 10f spectacle. Then again, it is the Derby and people do things they would not normally do to be a part of it. I'd also chuck out the obvious horse, because if he gets stuck in traffic the tote board can light up.
So, if I had to bet today, I would box up Sway Away and Archarcharch and try and make $490,000 in Finley's futures superfecta. And no, I don't much care that Sway Away does not have a big chance to make the gate with paltry earnings. With 17 days left in this soap opera, it appears anything can happen.
Kentucky Confidential is only $40 away from their goal. This morning someone popped in for around $9k as a contributor it seems. Right now it's a mystery, but a good mystery for Jessica and crew.
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