If you read the racing press, a conservative estimate of $2M has been floating around of late, for the mandatory payout. I think this might be way low. I have a sneaky feeling that this bet will be played like few other carryovers of this size we have ever seen.
- First is the obvious, the carryover and mandatory payout.
- People have taken a poke at this for the entire meet, and many have cashed and liked playing it for a small amount
- $2 pick sixes scare people off; "the syndicates win and I can't". 10 centers can attract more players and more dollars. As Dan puts it "three horses in each leg is less than half a tank of gas"
- GP is a top track. This is not like the Beulah carryover.
- Holiday weekend!
- Huge fields and a couple of weak ML chalk. This gives one hope it can still pay.
- The buzz is out there already.
Players have been pleading for tracks to give them a reason to play; to get excited. Although many think it's too late, I do not think it is. 0% pick 4's through Twinspires at various tracks, the Calder 12% pick 5, the USTA's strategic wagering with seeded pools, including little Northfield slashing rakes, Woodbine's $100k pick 4 guarantee each Saturday. By themselves they will not "fix" racing, but if we add them up, keep doing it, and keep listening to players, buzz can build.
This doesn't mean I support all tracks doing a Rainbow six because I do not; breaking players with an all-out evil rake for three months and giving them a one day mandatory reprieve is a gimmick, not a vision for growth. But it does build some buzz, and if tweaked (e.g. sold as a lotto bet to John Q Public), it's a good thing.
If my premise is right, I think we see a monster pool tomorrow at GP. I'm already handicapping and I figure you are too.