Friday, April 29, 2011

"If You've Never Been on Your Feet Before...."

" ... you better get up now" bellowed Roger Huston 20 years ago (video below for those who have not seen it).

Fast-forwarding to today, I am increasingly impressed with the work done on the web, by professional writers, bloggers and more when it concerns the Kentucky Derby. One especially, Kentucky Confidential, has broken through with some excellent stories, insight and more. If you've never bookmarked a Derby website before, you better think about it with this one.

If you want to read a very nice interpretation of likely Derby chalk Dialed In, pop over to Wire Players and read Ghostzapper's tome. I do disagree with the conclusion, because I think Zito is one of the few trainers who treats preps like preps; and this horse is likely to improve by 10+ Beyer points, I feel. However, good pieces like that make you think and re-think. If your beliefs are entrenched you will be a terrible horseplayer. Ghost is making me think and that's the kind of analysis we need to see much more of on the interwebs.

Cangamble makes a compelling argument regarding drugs and racing. As most know by now, the rumblings in congress to regulate the sport are again rearing their head. Just like takeout, slots and alphabet nonsense that infiltrates this sport like a bad boil will be settled by others, so will the drug issue. Sooner or later. And with the government involved (most of whom don't know a fetlock from a frisbee) good luck finding good policy.

Betfair's Derby betting board has not changed too much, which shows a little how the rest of the world sees the event. UK events like the Grand National would have 3 million matched by now. It's different without a US market.

For example, Dialed In has not moved an inch with the defection of the Factor. The pace presence of that horse probably makes Dialed In's task easier; without him, more difficult. Uncle Mo continues to hold onto second choice. I have not done much at all with my futures and I am not going to get rich this year. I am short Mo, The Factor and Jaycito, long Sway Away, and long a tiny amount on Arch and Santiva. You can find me on the corner of Yonge and Bloor selling pencils if Mo reverses form and wins this thing.

Nice meet for bias players at Keeneland. Late pace horses (my "pace adjusted late" top ranked horse is 1.20 ROI alone this meet) with a decent poly jock and trainer - winner, winner, chicken dinner. I have been so busy this month it's not funny so I have not benefited much, but looking at the results in my database and speaking to a few everyday players, it was not a hard meet to make money at.

Calder has been hard to figure out so far, with the usual meet-start nuances. I have played two of the pick 5's and will be back at it today. I came close to making a great score the last two days, so I hope I can convert one of these.

Some chatter on Twitter about the Atlantic City meet. Some folks like it and with huge field size it is a cult fave.

$100k guarantees continue at Woodbine tomorrow evening. We are getting closer and closer to the North America Cup preps, too. It's time to crank it up for Mohawk.

I'd like to thank Gary West for mentioning me in his list of favorite racing sites. That was really nice of him.

Have a good Friday everyone.

'If you've never been'...... one of my all-time favorite harness races. The side point to this performance was the fact that Falcon was not eligible for the Jug that year, and there was some upmanship going on. Lucky for Nihilator this colt was not eligible. That day, the son of Niatross would have been completely destroyed by Harmer's horse.

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