Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Tuesday Notes

There is quite a bit happening today and we have some fun and interesting articles and work being done in blogville.

Equispace's Space Sheet is damn cool and a great tool for Derby junkies. His dog did what he did this morning, not as a punishment, but as a thank you for compiling those cool stats. Good job.

Cangamble looks at drugs and racing and covers almost all the bases that I know of, except maybe CERA. Where there is money, there are people looking for an edge, and they are very sophisticated.

Full $1.5M North America Cup spring book odds are up. I agree with the chalk. If he stays sound, he should top the list as he's a nice talent. If you notice James Dean is qualifying him in Florida and then bringing him up here. For handicappers this signals who he learned training from - the great Stew Firlotte.

Dana is a true fan and is always looking for ways to have some fun come Derby time!

Frank Mitchell writes about Bellamy Road in his last piece. This is very salient to a handicapper, as it is a big part of this sport that we need to know about to make good betting decisions. After the Derby, Bellamy was called distance challenged, a fraud, a front-runner with no shot, and Zito was called an idiot for only two preps because he was not "fit". What he was, was injured. That he ran that well for 10f with a suspensory showed what kind of animal he was if he was sound, and that what we see is not often on the page. He was a superstar. Time will tell if Mo is Bellamy Road II.

It brings back memories for me, and they ain't good. I'd be retired if Closing Argument won that Derby. Coincidentally, Closing Argument was an outside the box horse in that Derby due to things not on the page. He was sick after the Holy Bull and was good in the Blue Grass considering it was a true tightening of the screws (sick horses have stall rest and need to get fit in a prep), but on paper it was poor, so people discounted him.

Some folks are talking about Toby's Corner's last eighth on Saturday. If you look at his almost perfect internal fractions with little variance, and the slow final time, he should come home in that. It was a perfect for a closer.

I'm long Sway Away for the Derby. The price is too juicy and I think he rolls this weekend, where his price will tank. I might feel more or less confident in him if the clock worked at SA for his second last and I could properly analyze that race.

Chasing the Derby has done a good job compiling links. This dude is into it.

LATG talks Shmoe today. Yessir, being done like dinner after 7f with no fractions is a head-scratcher for a superior athlete like that. He's push button, and when the button is pushed at 6.5f and there is no response, there is something going on. See Rachel not rebreaking when hooked by the inferior Zardana as a clue.

The Factor is 10-1 at Wynn and lower at Betfair and other online books. I have never seen that before. I can't see any serious player betting the Factor now at 8-1. But I have been wrong about a million times before, so expect to see the Factor draped in foliage in a few weeks.

Thorotrends asks, has any Derby winner been passed in his prep? In modern history I can only come up with Mine That Bird, but he was sent to engage in stout splits, wide, and rode straight and sound, deserving to be tired late.  Can anyone think of any others?

There is a long article on the UFC in the Globe and their battle to crush boxing. What they have done is nothing short of miraculous, and it shows when you have a strong executive with a vision, a sport can roll.

A Twitter horse racing partnership has started in the UK. Interesting.

For those of you who care about journalism and racing, there is still time to support Kentucky Confidential. As an aside, Kickstarter is worth joining anyway. There are tons of things one might support on there. It is somewhat addictive!

Have a great Tuesday everyone.


Anonymous said...

If Uncle Mo makes the gate in the big one I will eat my own spleen.

Gene Kershner said...

Thanks PTP for the mention and linkage....much appreciated.


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