Saturday, July 18, 2009

Pace PP's are Up

The Meadowlands Pace free PP's are now up.

My quick analysis:

In a slightly different, and very suspect crop in 2009, we find that four contenders will not be using any gate speed. Well Said, Hypnotic Blue Chip, Arctic Warrior and Vintage Master are all heading to mid pack, or the back of the bus (so the story goes). That does leave the door open for some leavers at a price to hit the board. I expect that Chasin Racin, or If I Can Dream will foot the bill. Chasin Racin raced ok last time, and Sears would probably want to take a shot. Knucks Brennan, who the words "ease to the lead" are not exactly made for, has a dead speed horse as well, capable of firing. He raced well last time, pacing his third quarter under a patented Brennan bullrush in 26.1 and still having something in the tank to come 4th. Lesser horses would have come home slower. I think using him underneath might be an idea.

Art Colony and Hypnotic Blue Chip will both be overbet as they are the obvious horses, so I will pitch those. In addition, Hypnotic had a high white count this week so was sick with something. Never a good thing.

As for the winner, he is pretty obvious, as well. None of these horses have the talent to get down to the quarter in 29 and pace 49 first up from 6th, like he did last week. He probably has somewhere between a 55 and 65% chance to win. He'd have to be flat like he was earlier in the year to not put in a good account of himself, and I guess that is a possibilty for bomb players. He is also rammy, so for super bomb lookers, there is always a hope.

My plays:

Well Said - If I Can Dream - all
Well Said - IICD and Chasin Racin ex's

I'll box up the three if they are paying something.

Good luck and enjoy the race folks.

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