Sunday, September 9, 2012

Some Tweaks & Some Sunday Notes

Kentucky Downs handle was up droves yesterday. A push in purses helped drive some horsemen to the box, and of course Kentucky Downs now has the lowest blended takeout in North America, after reducing it large this past year. It's a neat meet; one which is different from most others. Racing does well when they do some new neat things, rather than just "tweak". We've tweaked for generations, while generational change in other sports, or businesses have changed rapidly, and fundamentally.

Speaking of tweaking, Seth Godin today writes:
  •  I think for most businesses that want to grow, it's way too soon to act like a direct marketer and pick a single number to obsess about. The reason is that these numbers demand that you start tweaking. You can tweak a website or tweak an accounts payable policy and make numbers go up, which is great, but it's not going to fundamentally change your business.
When Vegas went huge in the 1990's they didn't tweak, they changed their model to become a destination. When Apple went huge in the early 2000's it wasn't a tweak of their home computer, it was a generational change on handheld music devices. Online poker wasn't a tweak, it was new. Betfair was not a tweak on betting with a bookie, you could become your own bookie. Greece tried tweaking years ago, but they've imploded. Tweaks don't work much anymore when you are struggling.

It pays to look at pool size. Check out this chart from the Yorkton Fair last night. That's a $109 winner, with no place money, keying a $7 quinella and $79 exactor. Win place betting ruled the roost there.


That was some night at Mohawk last evening, and it shows when the US drivers come north, you get some solid racing. There are very few holes and each driver has to work to get a trip.

The first race was a headscratcher. Driver Sylvain Filion with Moreau's horse (coming off a horrid line) was leading by five in the lane, well on his way to a monster victory. It seemed to me he did not want to win by too much, maybe because form reversals like that peak the interest of Bruce Murray, as they should. He snatched the horse up, and was almost nipped at the wire. The ORC judges did the right thing (he veered over into Randy at the wire) and pitched  him.

My "what if" of the evening was in the Nassagaweya. Last week in the Metro I used a couple of horses for bombs: Fool Me Once and Captive Audience. Last evening they ran first and fourth. I ended up betting and keying Gingras' colt who came second by a head. The other colt in the super was 1-5. I could not put that together this week to make anything. The super paid $21k for 20 cents. 

Next weeks Canadian Trotting Classic should be good, despite the absence of superstars in the division. Guccio, after looking more than ordinary his last couple, must have had some vet work done, because he stormed home like a sound horse. He'll probably take some money. Market Share was good, as was Little Brown Fox. Gym Tan Laundry is definitely a speed threat. This may be the last Canadian Trotting Classic - for anywhere near that purse anyway.

Have a nice Sunday everyone.

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