Saturday, September 6, 2008

Dewey Beat, Somebeach Sick?

In a very interesting evening at Mohawk tonight, Somebeachsomewhere and Deweycheatemnhowe were both on the card.

First up, Crazed ran down Dewey late with relative ease. Dewey did not look himself - he seemed to have no fight - but he has been all out the last two, so saying that was a surprise is probably not true. Handicappers on the blog have spoken about that recently. Not to mention, Crazed is a nice horse. Dewey drew the 10 next week. We will probably see 4-1 or more on him, maybe more fair odds. When was the last time we have seen an undefeated horse who is 1-5 each week go to 4-1 or so the next? Never.

A couple of things that I am happy about though: 1) Ray can not be blamed for this defeat, and 2) In a showing of respect for his animal, when Ray saw that he was beat, he put that whip away. I gained more respect for Ray tonight than I might have through all his years of training. I hope the big colt bounces back.

There is a man named Glen that I know. He is a good man, always has his best wishes for you, and when he calls you a name, well he does not mean it. He has been screaming for the track record to be beaten at Mohawk for about four years. Well Glen: Paul MacDonnell and Brent MacGrath tried. Oh boy did they try.

Paul took the big horse through time trial type fractions, 53.2 and 120.2, looking for one thing - a big mile, maybe even a world record. But a funny thing happened. Beach was empty. For the first time in his career, he was empty.

Empty or not, he did what superstars do, though. He won.

In the post race interview, the trainer was understandably confused about the state of the champ. He alluded that he would be scoped to see if there is a problem. No doubt a blood will be taken tomorrow. Let's hope all goes well.

It is a handicapping truism in harness racing though that sometimes we lose sight of. We saw it with Art Official winning the Cane on 'e', as well. When a horse is all out and he should not be all out, something is not quite right. And next week they are generally bad bets. If Beach was in next week, which I am sure he will not, we would bet against him. Horses tell you how they feel by how they race. Sometimes we spend too much time looking at noise. As cappers we have to learn to throw noise right out the window.

An interesting night of racing tonight, regardless. Whomever says harness racing is boring, clearly has not watched enough harness racing.


Anonymous said...

No way you are going to get 4-1 odds next week on Dewey. I know he has the 10 hole but it doesnt matter, he will be around even money to 7-5 range, he is an awesome colt, he will bounce back.

Pull the Pocket said...

You might be correct. I had fair odds on Dewey for the Hambo at 7-5 and he was 40 cents to the dollar. But if the bloom is off the rose he should be at least 5-2 I would think. Crazed and he have met twice and they are exactly even in lengths beaten and wins and losses now. Crazed, with a perfect post should be heavy chalk I think.

Speaking of that, last nights odds board shows that there is certainly value to be had on horses like Dewey. He had won his last two by a half and three quarters of a length under some serious stick, yet he was 1-5.

1-5's are usually reserved for open length winners, unless you are undefeated of course.

It brings to mind Curlin. He was 40 cents to the dollar last time off of a subpar race on the turf. He barely got up against a 40-1 shot.

Anyway, we will know what his odds will be in a week.

Anonymous said...

Dewey will be 2-1 or higher.. unless of course Ray puts somebody else up to drive.
Remember, Ray has said 45 thousand times that this horse is way better from off the pace.. and I agree. Remember the Haughton last year? The trond entry tried to keep him on lockdown with Sears backing into him in the cover flow and it mattered not as he strolled on by.



Anonymous said...

I,m thinking maybe WEG should offer say $100,000 bonus for any broken Track Record and maybe a $1,000,000 if Blissed Out Track Record would just go away.

Pull the Pocket said...

If it fell last night Walleye Man, I was going to buy pictures, get them autographed and see if I could wrangle a pair of the Beach's shoes for ya :)

nrfdc said...

Can I guess who walleye man is..LMAO!!!!

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