For the twitter folks who were salivating like I was to bet against Well Said today....... well, we bit the dust. Actually the crowd was pretty much on par with us as he was only 2-1 in his elim, so betting agin' him was not uncommon. His elim was a thing of beauty and the final was fairly academic, although he was stretched out a bit in the final and Pierce had to go to the stick. If I Can Dream raced well.
The boys on one of the chat boards were giving me the business about Well Said, as I can never figure out when he is going to look like Secretariat like the Adios or M pace elim, or Slow Hanover like at Chester, in the Burlington, or last week when he was life or death to beat Carnivore. I was thinking about it, and although I have always loved his talent, I looked back and I could never, ever figure this horse out. Way back when handicapping last years Breeders Crown., I alluded to me guessing with him, and it has stayed the same to this day: "Well Said (5-1 fair) in my opinion has more pure talent than all of them combined, and he will be my play as I expect him to be underbet on the board. This colt has two things 1) He is a very inconsistent horse and 2) He has extreme talent. His Metro Final performance when he was hung out like a piece of laundry was a great effort and it would win Saturday's final ten times out of ten. I think he could be a great play at a good price if he's right."
I don't think I am the only one who guesses with him. For such a talented horse he has not even been the favorite in the betting 10 out of the 23 or 24 times he has raced, which is pretty shocking, considering he wins like a 1-9 shot at times and his main competition (Vintage Master) did not even break his maiden until July of this year. The crowd seems to be wary of his consistency, as well.
I think this colt will do exactly that the rest of the way. He will set a world record, but then be 15 lengths worse another time and get beat again by someone like Mr. Wiggles. He is just that kind of horse to me. I can't bet a race he is in anymore. Sound advice for my bankroll :)
I was surprised at Vintage Master today. Anyone else? He was under the stick to catch cover in a 28 and change quarter and was totally off his game. These horses have bad days now and again, and he sure picked a bad time to have a bad one. That was his first sub-par race this season; but as a sharp capper I know noted when saying he would be swinging against him today - his last quarter in his qualifier was slow for a horse like him. Maybe it was not a stretch to see him race mediocre.
As for the Jug, the day seemed to be well attended as usual, and there were some decent tilts. The track the last couple of days seemed sticky and along the inside a bit worn. That might have helped the racing, with come-from-behinders having a bit more of a shot. As Bob Pandolfo opined with a few stats on another board - it is the fastest, most speed favoring piece of dirt around. But not this week it seemed. The times were somewhat slower than usual.
Another one in the books. On to Lexington next for many of the three year olds, trotters and pacers.
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