Friday, August 6, 2010

Hambletonian Card Analysis and Free PP Link

This year's Hambletonian card, set for Saturday, is better than usual. Although there are one or two too many stakes races for serious cappers, the stakes do have some betting interest for me. For the first time in awhile there is no standout chalks in the biggest two races: The Hambo and Hambo Oaks. There is a free program here.

As well, I find I really like the all superfecta card in these instances, because if you can land a longshot or two on the ticket, it tends to pay.

Going through the card, I have a few I might play:

In race one I believe Misterizi is worth the poke. He has some problems, but Montini would not ship him down there for a lark. He's the fastest horse in the race. I might use Schnittker from the ten post in the supers.

In Race two Buck I St Pat should win, but why take a low price. I will likely sit this out.

In the Merrie Annabelle I have been through the replays a few times. I am pretty stumped. It looks like the chalk is solid, the second choice might improve as well. What to do? Probably nothing. Other than the 1 and 2, Fitness Girl caught my eye last time.

Comedy hour in race 4. The best horse in harness racing versus a 20 claimer not long ago claimed by Lou Pena. Shark Gesture, one would expect, to air. He is fine off three weeks, and more than likely schooled in 49 for this. I'll sit this out.

Race 5 gives us the best mare in training - Put on a Show. She is head and shoulders above this crew. Her even money ML is a big overlay for me.

Race 6 is really interesting. The chalk does look good and is a very talented colt, but there are several capable ones here. I will more than likely go price fishing with Evil Urges. I will throw in The Lindy Reserve for a bomb. He got cooked in the second quarter a bit and I think he will be better this week with a covered trip.

In race 7, if Southwind Lynx returns to form he should crush these. He has had some problems, but they appear to be fixed with the last layoff between starts. He is by far the class, but taking a low price is not advisable. Mr Hallowell and Casimir Camotion might provide a price. Noble Falcon jogged last year in this race on Hambo day.

In the Nat Ray the race looks like it begins on one question: Will Enough Talk race like he can. I don't like horses who bust at low odds, equipment problem or not, so I will pitch him and try to make a score. Lanson and Slave Dream are my shots. Lanson can get a good trip from inside and Slave Dream was good last time. John Campbell is ROI positive first time on a trotter as well (look at Elusive Dream in race 2 for evidence of that).

In the Oaks, I am going to wait for any track bias, and post parade inspection. I feel like going off the board here to Southwind Samarai, but I don't know yet. Barslide beat a little bias last time and I like her, but I don't like betting trotters like that in this race.

In the big one I am going to what I think is an extremely talented trotter: Wishing Stone. He closed from the clouds last time and I think is sitting on a big one, at a nice big price. He deserves a big effort here to show he is better than he looks. If the pace falls apart and this one wins, I will look at Lucky Chucky and Pilgrims Taj underneath.

I am not interested in the OWH in 11 with the heavy chalk. I think BG's Folly is a really nice horse, though.

Ditto race 12, the US Pacing Championship. I like Vintage Master, but he will be heavily bet. If there is some sort of wild closing bias I might take a small poke on Bettor Sweet at a bomber price.

In the Lady Liberty, Dreamfair Eternal is so good right now, but this is a really interesting race, especially if there is a speed bias under the sun. If Tug River Princess fires it could be over. If any of the Bulletproof horses do the same and improve, we might see a speed winner. On the Glass is one of my favorite mares and if she is a price I might play her.

In race 14 I do not like One More Laugh, at his price. Razzle Dazzle or Valentino will see my cash I suspect.

In the last, I will play Lennon Blue Chip off an eye-catching close last time. Pena and Coleman will be overbet I believe.

Have any trip notes for us here at PTP? Let me know.

In addition, I might pop up the live blog tomorrow, so if you are around and playing the Hambo card as I will be, please drop by.

Have a great day and good luck at the windows.


Anonymous said...

I like Reven Damour in the Nat Ray. With the absence of Lucky Jim, San Pail, and Arch Madness, the race would appear to be Enough Talk's to win or lose.

However, we keep underestimating the European horses. Reven has been improving in each Canadian start and I truly feel he would have finished second if Slave Dream stayed flat at the end last week (I think he gained ground on the break). Reven did race against some of the better trotters in Europe and I am of the opinion that overall, European aged trotters are better than North American. If you can get good odds on Reven Damour, he is definiteley worth a look.

PTP said...

I would love to see Reven Da Mour with a local driver, just to see what he can do.

The Europeans are good drivers, but it sis a different game here. Victory Tilly went right to the front when he won in a world record. The others who come seem to want to grind.

Anyway, I agree with you. Nice horse with a good shot. He raced well last time.


Anonymous said...

Very nice call on the lindy reserve. $72 winner........ wow!

Anonymous said...

Holy moly. $72 winner, $42 winner and now Slave Dream. I hope you have the pick 4 going!

Pull the Pocket said...

For Casimir Camotion I had to go four deep and I got a DQ for the $72 winner, so not quite as good as you said :)

Thanks though. Slave Dream was a decent bet I thought. No way Tetrick should have been 35-1, imo.

Good luck the rest of the way.


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