"Jocks (or drivers) that stay around for a late mount mean the horse is a good bet"
Below we spoke about statistics and how they can be backfitted, and/or used improperly. The use of databases are a relatively new thing, because computers are super-fast now, and more and more people are using commercial database software. I remember as a kid hearing the above quote almost each race day. If someone stuck around, or showed up with only two drives, one of them late in the card, that last one was like printing money.
Dan on the HTR Software board ran those numbers for the runners. I would suspect a lot of money was burned on this angle throughout the years. Databases can be Mythbusters.
In a nutshell:
Win percentage for all the top riders chosen: 18%
Win percentage last race of the day (top riders): 17%
Win percentage last ride of the day (they 'stuck around'): 18%
Impact value for benchmark: 1.49
Impact value for "stick around races": 1.49
It is hard to find a deviation on impact values for any stat that is zippo. To have them equal is astounding. Sticking around for a late mount is correlated to winning about as much as what they had for lunch that day is.
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