Sunday, November 9, 2008

The Weekend is Done

Well almost done. It's the third quarter of the Eagles game. We're getting there.

HANA issued a press release tonight. They have injected themselves into the ADW fight in the US and their President Jeff Platt has been trying to find common ground.

I can not believe racing, sometimes. Customers pay for virtually everything, yet the fight is between horseman, tracks and ADW companies. Where is the player represented? I would hope they begin to listen. ADW companies put a lot of dough into marketing and innovation and of course players use the medium. It is the ONLY growth area in racing. It can not be short-circuited in some kind of archiac purse fight, in my opinion, so someone has to stand up with common sense and be heard.

The Progress Pace was today. I can not believe the odds on the two chalks, Badlands Nitro and Dali. There is no way they should have been that low. I could not find the winner though.

I bet 27 races today, and I got 11 second place finishes. Oh ya, and I only bet win. That was an incredibly frustrating day. My handicapping and money management was perfect, and 80-90% of my horses were well-meant but I lost money.

Harness Herb has been touting pacing mare Native Bride. Herb was correct. This mare is first class and is sure to be odds on in the Breeders Crown. She is easily the top filly in racing and she proved it tonight in the Matron. I would expect Herb will have her at least 6 or 7 in his list this week. Here is the video evidence.

Kudos to Woodbine. When they show the stretch run the damn odds banner gets in the way. But they have moved it along the top so viewers can see the horses coming from out of it.

Jessica Chapel of Railbird emailed me last night about Raceday360. If you want a quick way to look at the blogs of racing, give it a bookmark and check often. It is updated in virtual real-time.

We'll be back tomorrow with the Hambo poll and |Tuesday with Harness Herb's look at the top ten. Also, I have a handicapping post to get up. I have not done one of those in awhile.

I hope everyone had a good weekend.


Anonymous said...

Sorry about your tough day betting. I have had many days like this, esepecially since I don't bet a lot of favorites.

I was wondering if you might consider betting win/place sometimes to mitigate this. I know it might not be optimal purely from an ROI perspective, but it has helped me keep a level head (which can help ROI in the long run of course).

Also, I haven't heard a lot of people talk about this, but with the advent of Net Pool wagering pretty much everywhere, the payoffs of non-favorites in the place and show pools aren't as bad as they used to be. Of course, one problem with place is that at a lot of tracks there just isn't enough money in the pools to even consider it, but at Woodbine, Balmoral, Meadowlands it's certainly still viable.

Pull the Pocket said...

Hi Bumby,

My long term numbers show that my win roi is better than my place or show, so I stick with it. I just have to be able to keep an even keel on this and know that long term I will be better off.

To say some days it is not frustrating is an understatement tho. After betting most of the day and coming second my first win bet of the evening was the six horse at MNR in the first race.

8 Hiway Threetwenty Pereira O M 115 21.80 10.00 5.40
6 Milliondollarbaby Ganpath R 115 23.40 11.40

Getting those seconds sure is tough sometimes, especially when they are bombs.

I have some data on place and show prices with net pool pricing. Maybe I can get that up in a post soon.

Thanks for the comment!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your response.

I would love to see your figures on Net Pool Pricing. My sense is the folks that used to pound favorites in place/show (Dr. Z style) are really getting hurt by this new method.

Mid price place and show payoffs are helped, particularly with the minus pool occuring only with the horse that took the money.

Extreme longshots remain poor bets in any straight pool as they continue to be overbet relative to their chances.

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